January 25, 2026

 

The S&P 500 fell 0.3% this week. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index was flat, Gold jumped 8.7% and Bitcoin fell 6.5%. 

U.S. data this week painted a cautiously positive growth story. Industrial production and construction spending both surprised to the upside, signaling firmer late-2025 momentum than economists expected. Personal spending remained solid, confirming consumers are still driving activity. Updated third-quarter GDP was revised higher to 4.4%, underscoring a stronger baseline heading into 2026. The main soft spot came from pending home sales, which fell 9% in December. A recent dip in mortgage rates may prove brief, as U.S. Treasury yields—key drivers of home-financing costs—have climbed in recent months amid a selloff in Japanese bonds.

 

 

 

Time To Take Profits In Precious Metals

 

 

Silverlight has been bullish precious metals for a long time. The asset class first caught our attention back in 2019, when Michael wrote a Forbes article titled “Buy Gold, Sell Bonds.” Since that article was published, gold is up 209%, compared to just 8% for the iShares Core Aggregate Bond ETF. Probably the best asset allocation call in the history of the firm. This week, we took profits and closed out all precious metals positions.

Why sell now? Our long-term view on gold and silver remains constructive, but markets don’t move in straight lines, Sometimes great long-term investments become terrible short-term trading setups. We think precious metals fall into that category. Both gold and silver have experienced parabolic price moves—sharp, accelerating advances that pull prices far above their underlying trend. These moves feel great on the way up, but they often sow the seeds of their own reversal. Recent price action in both metals fits that profile.

One potential warning sign for short-term market tops is big, round numbers. Gold recently tagged $5,000 and silver eclipsed $100. After milestones like these are reached, momentum often fades.

Another warning sign to take profits is when prices drift to extreme deviations compared to moving averages. Silver, in particular, is currently stretched well beyond its Average True Range (ATR) levels that have previously marked exhaustion points. As signified by the red lines in the above chart, silver made important tops in 2020, 2011 and 2008 when the ATR% extension was near similar levels to now.

Precious metals may keep moving higher short-term, but for us patience looks like the smarter trade. When any market stretch this far from trend, the question isn’t if the gap to a moving average closes, but how. There are two realistic paths. In both cases, forward asymmetry is unfavorable.

The first is a price correction: a mean reversion back toward the 50-day average. Based on current levels, that implies downside of roughly 15–25%, which could occur quickly if momentum fades.

The second path is sideways consolidation: price stalls while the moving average rises to meet it. That scenario limits near-term downside but carries a different cost—time. Historically, this type of digestion can take several months, during which upside is muted and opportunity cost compounds.

We will return to the precious metals trade whenever price conditions normalize and we can identify a lower-risk entry point.

 

 

A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted

 

 

Former New York City Mayor Eric Adams recently launched a Solana-based meme coin called NYC Token, pitching it as a way to support non-profits. Adams and his team did not disclose clear details on fund management or broader project governance at launch. 

The token briefly soared, reaching a market capitalization of over $500 million. Then came the rug pull. Within 30 minutes of launch, the value plunged 80%, wiping out hundreds of millions in paper value as price collapsed and liquidity dried up. 

On-chain analytics show a wallet tied to the project deployer withdrew roughly $2.5M at the peak, later returning around $1.5M after prices were already down. That leaves a lot of money effectively removed from the pool, sparking widespread accusations of a classic rug pull. It’s unclear exactly how much Adams personally profited, but prominent crypto analysts claimed he pocketed over $3 million through the liquidity moves.

This episode underscores why we favor Bitcoin over 'alt-coins'. Bitcoin is a scarce asset with a transparent monetary policy. Match that up against an endless parade of speculative altcoins and celebrity-backed tokens that too often behave like scams, and its clear that most altcoins end up damaging crypto’s overall reputation. There's no value. Just ridiculously dumb value propositions that are usually nothing more than pure spin. We encourage readers to avoid any and all altcoins.  

As our grandmothers used to say: “A fool and his money are soon parted.”

 

 

International Equities Are Outperforming Again

 

 

The MSCI ACWI ex-US index has risen 5% year-to-date in 2026, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 1% gain. This continues the pattern from 2025, when international equities surged 32.6% compared to the S&P 500's 17.9% return.

International equities have been cheaper than their domestic counterparts for years. However, foreign capital flows may be turning less favorable toward the US. Already in 2026, there has been a flurry of aggressive geopolitical moves by the Trump Administration. In Week 1, the US captured Venezuela's President Maduro. Week 2 saw Fed Chair Powell investigated by the DOJ. In Week 3, President Trump imposed tariffs on the EU over Greenland disputes. Week 4 brought threats of 100% tariffs on Canada.

Outside of the political theater, there could be deleterious economic effects from all these announcements that investors should carefully risk manage. A key risk is foreign repatriation of capital as an unintended consequence. Fund flows are one barometer for this risk. According to recent data from Bank of America, international stocks have attracted $39 billion in net inflows YTD, capturing 78% of total developed market equity flows. Meanwhile, US equities saw just $771 million in flow—50 times less. The dramatic inflow advantage for international equities may reflect shifting investor preferences amid rising uncertainties. We will continue to monitor fund flow data to see if the trend continues.

Note: All of Silverlight's equity strategies are overweight international equities. 

 

 

EQT Corporation Investment Thesis

 

 

Wind chills near minus 30 in Chicago forced firefighters to battle house fires in ice-coated gear this week—a stark reminder of how punishing Winter Storm Fern has been across much of the country. As tens of millions crank up the heat, natural-gas demand is surging at the exact moment production and pipeline flows are being disrupted. Storage is draining fast, and prices are responding accordingly. Futures have jumped over 60% in a matter of days, reaching their highest levels since 2022 and marking one of the most volatile short-term moves on record.

EQT Corporation sits squarely at the center of this dynamic. It is the largest U.S. natural-gas producer, with operations concentrated in the Marcellus shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia and production near 7 Bcf per day. EQT pairs a deep, low-cost drilling inventory with an integrated midstream footprint, most notably the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which improves access to Virginia and fast-growing Southeast markets. The company is also positioning itself as a key supplier to “Data Center Alley,” securing gas agreements tied to new power projects supporting AI- and cloud-driven electricity demand.

What sets EQT apart is quality and discipline. The company’s free-cash-flow breakeven sits near $2 per Mcf, and new pipelines and in-basin demand continue to improve realized pricing. Management has taken a deliberately conservative approach to LNG, locking in long-dated, 20-year agreements that back-end export exposure while targeting attractive liquefaction costs later this decade. At the same time, today’s price strength is being used to aggressively reduce debt, with leverage expected to fall below 1x EBITDA by 2026—an important margin of safety across commodity cycles.

For investors, the recent gas spike highlights EQT’s leverage to both weather-driven shocks and longer-term structural demand. The shares trade at a 7.3% free cash flow yield, which is attractive relative to peers. With balance-sheet repair largely complete and a clear runway to return capital through buybacks later this decade, today’s valuation looks compelling against EQT’s long-lived inventory, improving basis, and growth opportunities tied to data centers and LNG.

 

 

The Price of Nostalgia

 

 

One of our kids recently sent us a YouTube video bluntly titled “Why Disney World Sucks.” It was funny, sharp, and uncomfortably accurate.

A single day at a major theme park can now run a family of four close to a thousand dollars once you add food, parking, and a few obligatory treats. That’s real money for an experience where most of the day is spent walking, waiting, and negotiating with a tired child about why you can’t step out of line now because you’re “almost there.”

What’s striking isn’t just the price inflation. It’s what people are actually buying. You’re not paying for rides or food quality. You’re paying for a feeling. A carefully engineered emotional flashback. A brief return to a simpler chapter, soundtracked by songs you learned before you knew what a mortgage was.

Nostalgia is powerful. Powerful enough to make adults overlook crowds, mediocre pizza, and eye-watering prices. That same force, left unchecked, can keep people overpaying elsewhere too—financially and emotionally—for things that no longer fit, simply because they once did. You don’t need to spend a thousand dollars and wait in long lines just to revisit meaningful moments. Nostalgia should be a tool, not a toll booth. Here are three simple, inexpensive ways to trigger nostalgia:

1. Create a personal highlight reel.  Think of it as preserving your past. Pull together your favorite photos and short clips. Drop them into a simple digital album, add dates, brief captions, and let the software build a slideshow with music. Tools like Mylio or Mixbook work well and make private sharing easy.
2. Host a one-night throwback.  Pick a specific year—high school, college, early career. Recreate one small detail from that time: a familiar meal, a short playlist, a movie you loved. Keep it tight—90 minutes, no phones. At the end, note one thing you’re grateful for from that season and one way you’ve grown since.
3. Write a note to your past self.  Choose an age. Write a single card. Capture one vivid memory. Then, thank that version of you for a decision or habit that still pays dividends today.

 

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice. The opinions expressed are as of the date indicated and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by Silverlight Asset Management LLC to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Silverlight Asset Management LLC, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any of these views will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.​​